Brasília – The financial market’s projection for inflation in 2021 increased again and moved even further away from the ceiling of the target pursued by the Central Bank (BC). Financial market economists changed the forecast for the IPCA – the official price index – this year, according to the Market Focus Report, from an increase of 7.27% to 7.58%. A month ago, it was at 6.88%. The projection for the index in 2022 went from 3.95% to 3.98%. Four weeks ago it was at 3.84%.

The Focus report also brought the projection for the IPCA in 2023, which followed at 3.25%. In the case of 2024, the expectation continued at 3.00%.

Four weeks ago, these projections were 3.25% and 3.00%, respectively.

The economists’ projection for inflation remains well above the 2021 target ceiling of 5.25% and is already equivalent to more than double the center of the target for the year, which is 3.75%.

The 2022 target is 3.50%, with a margin of 1.5 points (from 2.00% to 5.00%), while the parameter for 2023 is 3.25% inflation, with a margin of 1. 5 point (from 1.75% to 4.75%).

For 2024, the target is 3.00%, with a margin of 1.5 points (from 1.5% to 4.5%).

The BC stopped publishing, in the Focus document, the projections about the Top 5. These data can be consulted in the Market Expectations System at the following address on the internet: https://www3.bcb.gov.br/expectativas/publico /consultation/statistics series

monthly forecasts

Financial market economists changed the forecast for the IPCA in August 2021, from a high of 0.60% to 0.67%, according to the Market Focus Report. A month earlier, the projected percentage was 0.45%.

For September, the projection in Focus was up from 0.50% to 0.61% and, for October, it was up from 0.39% to 0.42%. A month ago, the percentages indicated increases of 0.38% and 0.35%, in that order.

Smoothed inflation for the next 12 months went from an increase of 4.52% to 4.57% from one week to another a month ago, it was at 4.38%.

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